Africa
Why Ethiopia could invade Djibouti
February 26, 2011 · 40 Comments
Djibouti’s troubles Wee but worrisome
Foreigners fear for influence and access in a tiny African country
NAIROBI — WITH only 860,000 souls, Djibouti is a miniature state in a big, bad neighbourhood. Yet the country is vital for the arid region around the Horn of Africa. Its port is a lifeline for its giant neighbour, Ethiopia, which is hemmed in by Somalia and lost its access to the sea when Eritrea became independent in 1993. France keeps the 13th demi-brigade of the Foreign Legion there—about 2,600 troops and airmen. And over the past decade, America has set up counter-terrorism and counter-piracy bases with 2,200 men and women.
Most foreigners are warmly welcomed by President Ismail Guelleh, who is conspicuously seeking to model his country on Dubai. He came to power in 1999 and his People’s Rally for Progress has ruled Djibouti since independence from France in 1977. On billboards in the capital, Djibouti Ville, he declares, “nous croyons” (we believe). Increasingly, the president seems to believe in his own abilities. He changed the constitution last year to allow himself at least six more years. Elections are due in April.
Djibouti’s fractured opposition was buoyed by the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt as well as the protests across the Red Sea in Yemen. On February 18th it demonstrated against the government’s grasping ways, hoping to exert pressure on Mr Guelleh to level the playing field before the election. But a peaceful protest turned nasty after police arrived. At least two people died and opposition leaders were briefly imprisoned.
If protests got more serious and the port shut down, Ethiopia might be tempted to invade. The French would probably beat them to it though. That would make the small state even more brittle.
Djibouti is ethnically Somali and it serves as a refuge for Somali money, intellectuals and clan leaders fleeing their capital, Mogadishu. Ethiopia
Djibouti is bordered by Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somaliland
is said to run a network of spies. Somaliland, another neighbour, has increasingly close trade links with Djibouti. Relations with Eritrea, on the other side, are tetchy. The two countries have a border dispute.
The pressing question on the minds of outsiders is whether they should continue to back Mr Guelleh or allow history to take its course. It is not clear to what extent the events in North African countries are affecting the rest of the continent. But it is perhaps telling that, in addition to Djibouti, Arab-influenced Sudan has had to bow to demands for greater accountability. Its president, Omar al-Bashir, announced this week that he would not stand for re-election. But after more than two decades in power, Mr Bashir might find it all too easy to renege on his pledge.
Source: The Economist | 25 Feb 2011
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By Hassan Ali
Tags: Abbas Idiris, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Port, Protest, Sudan
Readers Comments (40)
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For the last 13 years Ethiopia has been paying $1.4 billion dollars each year to use the port of Djibouti that is managed by Dubai's port authority. It costs Ethiopia a fraction of that amount to use Eritrean ports, but the genocidal regime in Ethiopia led by its illiterate Crime minister Meles Zenawi has vowed to "strangle" neighboring Eritrea's economy by refusing to use its two well-established ports within close proximity to Ethiopia's border.
Little does the illiterate Crime minister of Ethiopia know that his refusal to use Eritrean ports hurt Ethiopia even more than it does the self-reliant and fiercely independent Eritrea who the Economist Magazine has ranked the fastest growing economy in the world in 2011.
Today, while millions of Ethiopians are facing man-made famine and starvation, Eritreans are enjoying the abundance of food at low prices, and they're heading towards unimaginable wealth and prosperity thanks to their booming mining industry producing up to $2 million dollars worth of high grade gold every day.
The genocidal regime in Ethiopia is next in line to be toppled by mass uprising in the coming months if not weeks. American diplomats are already in Ethiopia talking to the opposition leaders in an attempt to save their priced slave puppet dictator Zenawi.
Just as the French consider Djibouti their colony, so do Americans view Ethiopia as one of their incorporated territories governed by an illiterate slave named Meles Zenawi.
Is it fair to continue to oppress the 860,000 people of Djibouti in order to safeguard Ethiopia's access to the sea?
Why do the French need to invade Djibouti when they had already done so a century ago?
And why should the neo-colonial powers send Ethiopian mercenary forces to invade Djibouti to stop the mass uprising ? Doesn't that stand in total contradiction to the "democracy" and "human rights" sermons they love to preach when it serves their economic and strategic interests in Africa?
What if Russia or China send their troops to Libya to keep Gaddafi in power? Will the neo-colonial powers cry foul ?
If the neo-colonial powers are to send their Ethiopian mercenary forces to invade Djibouti, why kind of message will they be sending to the oppressed people in the world that are struggling to attain freedom and democracy ?
My people in Ethiopia held a peaceful protest in 2005 following a sham election, and over 200 protesters got killed in the streets by the brutal regime in power. If the regime makes good with its threats and invades Djibouti, it will kill all peaceful protesters in the same fashion it had killed the hundreds of protesters in Ethiopia back in 2005. The international community that gave a deaf ear to the cries of my people in 2005 will also ignore the plight of peaceful protesters in Djibouti as the savage army of the regime in Ethiopia slaughter them in the streets.
Djiboutians must defend their homeland against invading forces, otherwise they will wound up like Somalia that was also invaded by the savage troops of the regime in Ethiopia back in 2006. The savage troops are known to rape underage Muslim girls and hang them afterward as they did in Somalia. Protecting your nation is protecting your children and their future. My prayers are with you neighbors.
- Ethiopian –
You seen to be emotional, I don't support what melese has done of not using the Assab port but the fact that eritreans are migrating back to Ethiopia crossing the most mined and dangerous border shows the severe povery crisis in Eritrea, not the other way around. How in the world would some one risk his life such if things were better in Eritrea? to the point there are more than 100,000 eritreans living as refugees in Ethiopia ?
Be honest for your self, it's this ego and denial which has brought both countries this low that in a time the world is becoming one, Ethiopians and eritreans who have many things in common are unable to work together. But worst still accusing and badmouthing one another instead of learning from past mistakes and work for the common good of their people.
Ctr to your claim: I honestly think that the decision not to use Assab has benefited Ethiopia knowing the tribalist agenda of melese building only Tigray and treating Tigre as first class citizens and the rest of Ethiopians as slaves. If things were to continue as before the war, we could have been in really bad shape. But GOD is good, it has halted it for good and atleast we have one Ethiopia now. Melese has learned from Eritrea that has deleted the agenda of liberating another Tigray will not take him anywhere. He is acting as more uniter, Ethiopian than any other Ethiopian, a catholic more than the pope. Ethiopia had actually had shown real progresses in higher education, power plants, roads and infrastructures in this very few years. While Eritrea remains as the only country with no university which is the source of every dev't in a country. I wad shakened to hear that the Eritrean gov't can't even afford to maintain the one and only one which was built by king Haileselasie. But backwardness as usual, you are stacked with false ego of sugar coating the dictator in Eritrea, hiding your day to day sufferings.
For a change to come in the region, it's up to us the young generation to change this kind of politics. We should address the challenges on the ground and work together for solutions.we shouldn't let our ego blind us and crash to a wall. Melese and essayes will go tomorrow but if we continue to accuse each other, nothing will change by itself.
There is nothing that suggests a conflict between Djibouti and Ethiopia, I do not know why the author chose his title.
^^ It is very likely that Ethiopia invade Djibouti if the current demonstrations in the country turn violent. The reason being that Djibouti is Ethiopia's main port and were the operations of this port to be halted, Ethiopia would be in a very difficult position.
I think they are using this paragraph. "If protests got more serious and the port shut down, Ethiopia might be tempted to invade. The French would probably beat them to it though. That would make the small state even more brittle."
i am from djibouti and dont agree with your statement… djibouti is majority somalians{beyond 60}and afars .. djibouti main somalians are issa tribe but they are other minority somalians as well gadaboursi , issaq…etc… in ethiopia ,somaliland ,they issa as well..if ethiopia try what eritria has already tried then they will fail but this is not the cae.. ethiopia need djibouti as djibouti needs ethiopia.. they are lot of exchange between the 2 countries… if the uprising comes within djibouti then no problem but it is from outside it will fail… djibouti is well protected within their borders so no fear.. eretria knows the outcome….somaliland is vital to djibouti as ethiopia it is to djibouti…. they got common borders…if ismail omar guelleh time come to an end then no problem another djibouti president will come as our previous president hassan gouled… peace .to east africa and peace to djibouti… a writer is independent whereever he is from but it will not diminish djibouti whatsoever
The worst article I have read. Who wrote this? Someone must be with little knowledge who is naive. In fact, Djibouti needs Ethiopia and there is a talk taking place to make the two sisterly country the first united country in Africa. Djibouti even imports agriculture products including drinking water from Ethiopia. Historically, Djibouti is part of Ethiopia in early 18th century. They are somali-ethiopian descents. Ethiopia needs Djibouti to feed its fast growing economy yet Ethiopia has been diversified its port as it reached out Somalia land, Sudan and Kenya as well as big air cargo services. In fact, there is a serious talk being planned to remove the Ertrean president and make the relationship smooth. France is the closest friend of Ethiopia and the west or USA will never let happen anything unstable in the horn. MR. writter please get your facts correct before you take your pen. Cheers!!
i agree with you concerning the little knowledge of the person who wrote this
but in your case you should also know the rep of djibouti 's population are mainly afar
and issa are living in this territory since very long time.
before french colonisation they had their own structures sultanates for afar and ougas for issa
it is right that afar and issa are also part of ethiopia,erythrea ;it does not mean that
they are Ethiopian ……
DJIBOUTI IS INDEPENDANT COUNTRY DO NOT FORGET IT
I don`t know what you mean by 'Saying Djibouti used to be part of Ethiopia" which part where we in the 8th century? Make sure you read the history of horn of Africa. Perhaps you have little knowledge about the Geo-political situation of the Horn. Everyone knows that there was no country called Ethiopia at that time you mentioned and we were never been part of any African state. How can you talk unity with Djibouti while you cannot even unite your People?
"..In fact, there is a serious talk being planned to remove the Ertrean president and make the relationship smooth"
Where exactly did you get that idea? was the "serious talk" in your kichen with your family?
In my view Mr. What's comment is biased. Who said Djibouti was part of Ethiopia in 18th c. In fact, there was no country called Ethiopia in 18thc. What is called Ethiopia today was formed in the second half of 19thc when the abysinians(amharas) coloniased oromia, ogadenia and other south ethiopian people. before that time the word Ethiopia was only in the bible and this word refers to country south of Egypt, which means mainly Sudan.
Bla, Bla, Bla, get a live, feed you ´re self first, this place belong to NATO, and we are happy about that,
will signed them to eternity, because we are smart, you primitive good for.???.
of course you condone SOMALIA predicaments,
why all the fuss, this is twitter, Ethiopian intelligence, because Somalia at moment open ground,
Djibouti is NATO Ground, this place very valuable to them, other wise.
because of Somali situation, that Hieana look like, would have has,
the land much earlier,
I see they are letting anyone to write an article nowadays. Or the deadline was rapidly approaching.
Looks like the article is from the economist, but the headline here is unrelated to the economist article.
Freedom for all
yeah is form the economist….mr mohamed you need to go back to school yourself. you are blinded by the pan somalism.
The Sudan President Omar AL-Bashir is already a wanton criminal by the ICC. How he's still
ruling the Sudan is beyond any logical wisdomand beond my comprehension.
however President Guelleh of Djibouti also belongs to the Intifada(Uprisings) happening in the Arab League World and therefore what the Author reports can probably likely to happen.
Cheers.
The Sudan President Omar Al-Bashir is already a Wanton Criminal by the ICC.
How he's still ruling the Sudan is beyond any logical wisdom and beyond my comprehension.
However President Guelleh of Dibouti also belongs to the Intifada(Uprisings) happening in the
Arab League World and therefore what the Author reports is probably likely to happen.
The opposition is not happy with one party rule since 1977.
Cheers.
In 2006, Ethiopia invaded Somalia in violation of International laws, and occupied the country for two whole years. Recent Wikileaks cables revealed Ethiopians were ordered to invade and occupy Somalia by their western masters. Ethiopians are the only people in Africa who are willing to die and kill on behalf of their white masters. If you think slavery is abolished, you thought wrong. Look at the slave Ethiopians.
Dear Brothers of east Africa,
Why don't you emulate the model of European Union?
At the end of the day, what matters is the job to young citizens and the prosperity for nations.
so border does not matter as long as our people are living healthy and prosperous life.
……you are acting as a neo colonizer's messenger. there is no situation which warrants invasion between ethiopia and djibouti . if the economist says so, it has it's own agenda.keep your if ..if 's for your self, and stop mimicing every sound you hear , like a parot……
Samira, I agree with you 100%.
You have to take into account the fluid borders in that area so I don't know if this kind of question really matters in the sense that Ethiopia is such a large country with virtually an open border with Djibouti for the nomads in the area who don't care about the lines on the map. From what I read, Djiboutians are allowed to come into Ethiopia without a passport and basically do whatever and vice versa.
I have a Djiboutian friend who has visited Ethiopia numerous times and basically knows more about the culture more than me since I've never been to Ethiopia. His family owns a home in Addis Ababa and they seem to have no problem traveling to Ethiopia and no problem in considering themselves of Ethiopian stock so I don't know if it's accurate for you to use the word "most" when saying "most Djiboutians who feel insulted in their soverainty"…unless you went out and did a survey in Djibouti of course.
Let's not forget the economic reality that Ethiopia is Djibouti's largest trade partner by virtue of Ethiopia's size relative to other countries in the region. I would say the relationship is somewhat like the US and Canada: most Americans are indifferent to whether Canada joins them or not since it makes little difference economically to them but the border is basically open because the populations are similar. However, in terms of realpolitik, the economic trade relations between both countries (ie. oil, lumber etc) is more important than anything else even though it's not mentioned much so obviously the ideological differences about nationality and lines on a map are set aside.
So I think in your project you should focus on the ethnic people living in that region (ie. Afar, Somali) and more importantly you should also mention the economic relations between the countries since in the end it's always about money/trade especially in the face of globalization and economic interdependence. The bulk of Djibouti's economic growth comes from renting the port to Ethiopia for 1 billion dollars per year I think.
By the way, Wikipedia says that the Djiboutian president was born in Ethiopia so that pretty much sums up the reasons why some Ethiopians in Addis Ababa said what they said.
Ismail Omar Guelleh was born in Diredawa which is Somali territory which in the future will be part of greater Somalia. Djibouti is also Somali territory. Ethiopia is Amhara and Tigray land, which is few villages in the north and north west.
Oromia will be free and it will regain its Addis Ababa. Somalia will recover its Diredawa, Jigjiga. Dont be confused by the fake colonial borders, Britain and America are finished and the new empire is China which does not recognize colonial borders because both Hong Kong and Taiwan are part of China.
You have few years to control those lands with the help of your Christian allies. Djibouti was never part of Tigray and Amhara villages.
Few Villages? LMAO! The things that people write when they are mad.
A lot of people are getting emotional for no reason. This article does not suggest that there is even the slight possibility that there will be a war between Djibouti and Ethiopia; rather, the article suggests that if the demonstrations affects the ability of the port to operate, Ethiopia might intervene to keep the port operational.
Samira darling..be fair in your judgement.. you just can't compare a small sized one clan MJS
family Puntland district which indeginously is a De facto from the parenthood Somalia to a cosmopolitan
metropolitan Somaliland Republic which heralds international boundaries of her own unlike Puntland
whose international boundaries go with Somalia proper. As for Djibouti a member country of the AL world
it's upto the people of Djibouti whether they will choose to keep the one party rule since 1977 or stand up
to oppose with intifada(Uprising) similar to the Intifadas surprisingly taking place allover the Arab World.
Cheers.
i am from djibouti and dont agree with your statement… djibouti is majority somalians{beyond 60}and afars .. djibouti main somalians are issa tribe but they are other minority somalians as well gadaboursi , issaq…etc… in ethiopia ,somaliland ,they issa as well..if ethiopia try what eritria has already tried then they will fail but this is not the cae.. ethiopia need djibouti as djibouti needs ethiopia.. they are lot of exchange between the 2 countries… if the uprising comes within djibouti then no problem but it is from outside it will fail… djibouti is well protected within their borders so no fear.. eretria knows the outcome….somaliland is vital to djibouti as ethiopia it is to djibouti…. they got common borders…if ismail omar guelleh time come to an end then no problem another djibouti president will come as our previous president hassan gouled… peace .to east africa and peace to djibouti… a writer is independent whereever he is from but it will not diminish djibouti whatsoever..
i agree with you somaliland, ethiopia and djiboti must keep the good work they are doing. well done im proud of all three of them, but for Eritrea and somalia they must clean their brain and work towards the development of the region not wars.
mr known stop smoking unzi
……..you are acting as a neo colonialist messenger; there is no situation between djibouti and ethiopia which warrants invasion. if the economist suggests so, it has it's own agenda. keep your "if…" "if…."s to yourself……….
……AND STOP MIMICING EVERY VOICE YOU HEAR LIKE A TRAINED PAROT………………………
sorry it is just an advice.
…..hey , I just remembered that ports of somaliland are alternatives for ethiopia if djibouti port is not available……….sorry again
As an Ethiopian, I can tell you that there is already some percentage of the cargo being transported through the Port of Berbera, Somaliland and the construction of the road from Nairobi to Moyale is already underway so that Mombasa can be another option. Even through it is a long way there will soon be a trial period for using Port Sudan…
The bottom line, There is no problem nor will there ever be between Ethiopia and Djibouti.
Besides the whole article is really bad and one can tell when you have a Title like this and no substance at all… shameful!
UM…I don't think Ethiopians/Habeshas have the right to interfere into the lands of djibouti
Otherwise Somalilander men will have to come and fight to protect their families living in Djibouti and also because Djiboutians are our brothers as we have blood relations through marriage including them being Muslim…Somalilanders will choose Djibouti over MelesZenawi who is dictator on his people and controls and forces himself on them and oppresses other tribes just like the previous President of Somalia oppressed Issaq tribe.
We're just saying as long as Meles behaves himself and does not make war with other neighbours everything will be cool..
wow what a shallow article it is we Djiboutians are living well with our Ethiopian brothers and the Ethiopians got no reason to invade us and and i don't know why the writer want to beat doomsday drum.we need Ethiopia and they need us .we have a symbiotic relation- ship .long live Ethiopia,long live Djibouti.
Nejat
for your information samira us somalilanders are not from somalia, and we want nothing from your little small land, by the way even though we are not regognised economically we are richer than your little tiny city, by the way we are a loving nation we want peace for all.
by the way if you are trying to connect us to somalia and you are saying that somaliland and somalia are the same we are comming for your little small land soon or later, therefore is better for you to separate somalia and somaliland ok. and why did you prsident invited our somaliland presedent and layd down a red carpet, because he knows we are the people who going to protect your little land if eritrea invades your little city.
is good to have peace in east africa yea, we all want peace out here so dont come with leave us alone, we trynna help you war country, we need no help from you country us somalilnaders are in peace our economy is bigger than yours and we have bigger sea than yours, we have petrol, and our country is not hot hell like yours, and we are demecratic country, your prsedent had power for a long time.
Somaliland should start a big campaig to seek recognition as a country from Djibouti. Somaliland can do this by forging close links with Djiboutis civil society and lobby both the people of Djibouti as well as the government and that includes the afar people as well not just the somali djiboutians.
who write this ? it talk about unrelated concepts . i think z writer write on z side of westerns .. we east Africans have our own life style,culture& politics.