High expectation is always risky and dangerous, and that is more so when it is based on non-scientific wishful thinking, and therefore does not reflect the realities of life on the ground. But Somalia’s high hopes to get-rid of the dreadful bondage of statelessness, terrorism and extremism was both legitimate and understandable. London Conference in February 2012 has opened up of what was understood as a window of historic opportunity towards a new era of ”post transitions”.
For the first time in more than twenty the International Community have shown united desired and determined to help Somalis to put their house in order. Thereupon, sincere and serious political analysts have not concealed their concerns about the obstacles and difficulties ahead. As one of the keen observers to see this process yielding I got difficulty to convince myself that things are moving well. But the strong commitment by the UN-AU and Donor Community’s efforts gave me a meek of inspiration and hope, but one would always remembers the wisdom that ‘The way to paradise is not paved with Good intentions alone’. Conceptually, the external factor in any process in life, be it biological, physical or social can be only helpful, to a limited or certain period of time, but can’t be neither decisive nor enough to accomplish the mission of making history of a people.
With these general conclusion in mind, no one, of course, had to believe by heart, no matter whether one is intelligent, innocent or naive, that the High expectations alone can turn into achieved objectives while the internal factor is still the same one since 1991, centrifugal, arrogant, and violent. All these stand against the opportunities that are about to be crystallized out of the international Community’s desire to help Somalis out their National quagmire they have been in for the last 21 years. unfortunately, however, the first taken by president Hassan show now difference between him and his predecessors as careful reading of this step, the formation of a new council of Ministers, would tell you a policy of Conflict Creation as contrast to Conflict Resolution as following: Absence of a national reconciliation policy as a result of which a tendency to overlooking all others became a clear projector as the new president’s outlook.
I personally see this (as a regional observer) intentional rather than distraction or commotion, it is unambiguous and clear, and their political sense would tell only one thing, to destroy all bridges leading to constructive dialogue with Somaliland through appointing a Somaliland high profile politician to portfolio of deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affair just to block further talks.
Destruction of puntland by deepening the clan contradictions which recently appeared as power struggle basis. Any sensible peace loving human-being should appreciate the Puntland’s achievements in peace building and state formation, let alone to think of undermining it. And finally the policy related to complicated Kismayo situation of the new president seems not healthy, and instead of calling for building of all inclusive regional administration it looks as an investment in the potential clan conflict in there by supporting only one group against all others.
And i end my remarks by calling the New President of Somalia H.E. Mr. Hassan Sh. Mahmoud to reverse this policy
Aadan Muuse Jibriil