Several months back, Libya’s Col. Gaddafi upset Nigeria’s officialdom and many old style African nationalists by suggesting that Nigeria should be split in two, a predominantly Muslim north, and a largely Christian south.
More recently, col. Gaddafi warned (disapprovingly) that a Sudan split would inspire many other countries to try the same medicine, suggesting that there could be chaos all around us.

Commentators saw in these two positions a typical Gaddafian inconsistence. However, there is in fact an underlying truth that Col. Gaddafi’s contradiction illuminated.

Let us look at it this way: The demographic strength of the Nigerian north and that of the south are fairly even, and power is sometimes held by a northerner, and sometimes by a southerner.

There even seems to be a polite understanding in the ruling elite that this alternation is healthy and should be maintained. Only a split Nigeria would more or less guarantee a permanent Muslim authority – in the north. And Col. Gaddafi would have a more assured area of influence out there.

On the other hand, Sudan has been exclusively in the hands of Muslim leaders since its independence. Without serious destabilising rebellions (and the referendum), Sudan’s demographics would probably ensure the status quo was maintained.

1. mohamed says:

   I wouldn't bother wasting my precious time commenting on the contents of this article for the
   simple reason that MR. Tacca has his ways of dealing with politics.
   However, the Author must know that Somaliland Modus operandi status quo is absolutely
   different than all the other countries you highlighted. Somaliland and Somalia were originally two
   different countries who joined hands to get united which failed to function and then each
   returned to their respective post colonial independence per se positions.
   As for the Sudan and the others, their post colonial independences were absolutely different
   than the Somaliland Somalia. However the Sudan referendum issue is purely for the Sudan Govt.
   and the people of Sudan to deal with and hopefully sorted out.
   Cheers.

   9:43 pm on December 12, 2010

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2. Omer Hussein Dualeh says:

   What is more disaster Mr. Mohamed is that Somalilandpress publication of such an article. The Gentleman who wrote the article is very ignorant about the Somaliland and its history, and he must go back and read the history.

   I advice Mr. Tacca to write something more good for Africa than speaking of Sudanese who agreed among themselves this referendum.

   10:09 pm on December 12, 2010

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3. Dayeer says:

   This piece is a very facile and superficial contribution to the discussion about the large and complex subject of 'African Statehood'. The author does not even raise the crucial and defining issues of self-determination, political consent and legitimacy, instead he seems fixated upon Col. Gaddafi and his political machinations. The subject of African Statehood and what it means in the context of Eritrea, Somaliland, Southern Sudan et al, deserves a more in-depth, intellectually rigorous and more scholarly approach than the somewhat pedestrian ruminations of Gaddafi's supposed motivations for some of his pronouncements that the author dishes up.

   In short, Mr. Tacca has little of consequence to say on the issue of African Statehood, and the little that he does say is both inanne and irrelevant. We can only hope that his novels have more gravitas.

   3:04 am on December 13, 2010

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4. Awdal patroits says:

   The end of the African nation state started in 1960, when the hastily departing colonial powers leftm Africa inn a huge mess of asrtificailly carved borders, where people of different races, cultures, language, and eth nicities lumped together in a n arbitrary border. Africa today is the most backward continent in the world. The artifiial postm colonial state has failed. The drama of the AU is a dream of the so-called no change in the colonially-inherited borders will not work. Eriterea emerged. Somaliland which always a separate country through its history is an already functioning democracy, Southern Sudan is next. Many more will come. Ivory Coast. Nigeria and others will happen in the near future.

   Long Life Republic of Somaliland

   4:15 pm on December 16, 2010

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   • mohamed says:

     For the African Union continent Countries the post colonial demarcated Sovereign States borders
     must hold true. However the case of Eritrea came about through uprising fighting movement
     struggle against the ousted Ethiopian Socialist Govt. Haile Mingiste Mariam. The Somaliland borders
     are solid. but all the other countries you mentioned are really problematic to break up.
     I would urge the AU Countries to respect and stick to the post colonial borders and avoid breaking
     up into fragments based on the clashing of ideological beliefs.
     Cheers.

     4:11 pm on December 21, 2010

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5. awdal patroits says:

   I have notify Somaliland everywhere to pay serious attention to a man who mI think was a former Siyad Barree Remnent called Mohamed Hassan. who is in a campaign to descredit Somaliland. He is driven by clannish sentiments and hatred. He so irrational and these days he is in a ramage. (Read Hiiraan.com.) All Somaliland we need to tech these Siyad Barre functionary a lesson. Watch out

   4:18 pm on December 16, 2010

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6. Ali Dheere says:

   A terrible article by Mr. Tacca. The article is more of a Ghaddafi and "imperial" islam bashing rather than threat to african statehood.

   7:14 am on January 11, 2011

    Reply