Published On: Tue, Jul 12th, 2011

After South Sudan Who will become Independent?

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July 9th has come and gone on the calendar. The Republic of South Sudan has become the newest independent state in Africa. Although the separation was generally peaceful there are underlying tensions that could quickly lead to Armed Conflict. But now there is a question that needs to be asked: Is Southern Sudan going to be the final state to gain independence?
The Short answer has to be No. There are efforts underway in the “Breakaway” region of Somaliland to be recognized as an Independent State. There have been reports that Kenya has done so and there is a push for Britain to do so as well. Several years ago there was an effort by those seeking this to have the US follow along through an attempt to pass legislation in Congress. Officially the position of the United States is that the Administration will wait until the African Union does this. So this means that there is a remote chance that this will happen.

Another Country that may have such a similar effort occur is Nigeria. We all have heard of the situation in the Niger Delta. It generates income coming into the Country with its oil reserves but there is little investment in the infrastructure in the region. A Militant Group the NDLF (Niger Delta Liberation Force) has urged President Jonathan to convene a SNC (Sovereign National Conference) to see if the Niger Delta can have a peaceful separation from the rest of the Country without bloodshed.
Another Potential Flashpoint has to be the Casamance region in Senegal. This has been the scene of an on-again/off-again insurgency against the Wade Regime. This region which lies along the border with the Gambia has had the rebels being supported by Guinea in the past. As long as there is not any resolution in this situation and is allowed to fester than problems could break out in West Africa yet again.
It would be a sin of omission not to discuss the situation in the Eastern DRC. Although it has not advocated Independence from Kinshasa the Central Government has been unable to effectively administer the region due to poor infrastructure, corruption and outside actors. So the Kivus currently operate with little oversight. It is possible to conceive that Rwanda or even Uganda can attempt to either separate territory in order to annex it outright or to create a situation whereupon they can create an “independent buffer state” to enhance their agenda for the region and to gain access to the copious natural resources in these two provinces.

This means that the State Department, the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency will really have to maintain constant vigilance monitoring these situations so that any information can be presented to the President in a quick and timely manner. This has not always been the case in recent months however. But these situations are just the tip of the iceberg…..

The Author Comments on US Policy towards Africa and publishes Confused Eagle on the Internet. It can be found at confusedeagle.livejournal.com

  • Mahamed

    Somaliland will be next inshallah!

  • Jama

    Somaliland 20 long years peace and stability recognition is around the corner I think Somaliland will be first country to get recognition after the South Sudan, Somaliland has mach batter chains than other African candidates,I hope Somaliland will be recognized soon Insha Allaah.

  • Abdirisak

    The whole now knows about somaliland and it,s effort toward international recognition,the recognition it self is only a matter of time, it doesn,t matter how long BUT it,ll come!

  • Simply_Somali

    I am Dhulbahante for thoose who want to know if it matters, but I am stil Somali I dont know if we can distinguish between Somali people, the new term Somalilanders does not seem so correct to use because we are one people if we forgett about the borders and states created (Somali people in the somali peninsula, just like somali language is spoken in etiopia, djibouti and kenya, we dont say i speak somalilandish). I can be for Somaliland I dont have many issues with the nation, the flag etc. I even argue that if the nation is recognised as independent that it would not mean so much, the land is stil there, there wont be any wall dividing the two nations the people will always travel between the nation and so on.
    But what I have problem with is and that is the reality, thoose who created Somaliland consist 98% of the Isaaq clan, the administration of Somaliland consists 90% of isaaq clan. I am not clanist but what Iam saying is if you want to create a free and fair country that includes, Isaaq, Dhulbahante, warsangeli, Samaroon, Gadibursi etc. then you should do that in a fair way. And I am not saying use the 4.5 formula I am saying use the wise people from all of these tribes and let the smartes people run the country.

    Another problem I have with Somaliland is that the nation is giving the people false hope, it has done so for the last 20+ years. Somaliland administrations are recognised and dealt with just as Somali delegates. Yes it is peaceful nation but it can be much better if people are honest with themselfs, Some people say that there are minerals and oil etc. in the country that will benefit us, I say that is good but why count we utilize it now? why arent foreign companies coming? I think Somaliland will benefit more if it stays as a federal state in Somalia.
    If not then every region in Somalia should be allowed to declare their own states either as part of federal Somalia or as an independent nation. Just as Iam for the people of Somaliland to decide their fait so should others like SSC, Galmudug, Awdal, Puntland etc. be allowed to declare their own independent states.

    I think this way we will all be busy fixing our local regions, and one day if we are adult enough and able to think clear we can rejoin or divorse for good.
    Until then peace for everyone, But Iam sure if we continue in the same path as the last 20 years there wont be any more Somalis or Somalilanders left in the nation, you guys who write on these forums should take a break from your comfortable lives in europe and America and go to our homeland and see for your self what is going on.

    My apologize if i said something bad

    • Somaliland Wadani

      I been Somaliland recently and yes their more issaq in government but issaq is big population in somaliland some estimate from 60 to 75 percent is issaq so i dont see any problem with more issaq in government and yes there are gadabursi and dhubahante and warsangeli in government more can join but they have to be qualify and present their credentials theirs nothing wrong with that but if issaq is the least in government it wouldnt make sense since they reside and have highest populations in regions in somaliland.

    • Somaliland Wadani

      Somaliland will not join a faderal government of somalia thats like united states going back to being british colony it dont make sense. Somaliland came before Somalia got its independence before Somalia and willingly join a union with Somalia if the union failed it is Somaliland morally right to separate and it best for Somalia to accept the decision of people Somaliland and just lets us move on n we still can be allies if thing are worked out.Somalilander are citzens on Somaliland.Somalians are citizens of Somalia.Somali is a language and ethic group referring to all somali people in general in horn of africa.Somalia some times calls its people Somali so does somaliland and so does somali region ethiopia and nfd region. The reason Somalia refers to citizens somestimes as Somali is because when the somali republic was formed it was for the Five original somali states Djibouti,Somalia,Somali region in ethiopia, nfd in kenya and Somaliland. Puntland and mudug hiraanland jubaland and these are just phoney clones of Somaliland which has is only history separate from Somalia.Somalia can do federal system but Somaliland will not be in it because Somaliland people have chosen their future and allah with Somaliland inshalah only the righteous survives.

    • Somaliland Wadani

      Somaliland can benefit from oils or minerals because you need international recognition and lots of money invested from foreign donors and as long as Somaliland is only consider a autonomous region in Somalia it can not take advantage of these opportunities that would help Somaliland general public. inshalah Somaliland will get recognition then all somali's in world will be proud of progress we have made the struggling the hard work our people have made for twenty years are people have kept peace so the world can hear voice and Somali people all over world will have country that make all somali's proud of who they are not terrorist not pirate peace loving Somalis the way we started off as nomads.

  • Jama

    If Somaliland gets recognition there will be border control every where in our territory and no one can cross that border with out visa Somali or not Somaliland will be independent country.

    • Mohamed Mohamed

      Somaliland was independent and free nation when the people of Somaliland decided to join the Republic of Somalia. They were all together and happy to do that federation of the first two free Somali nation. It was joyful union and also it was right step forward. after twenty three part of Somaliland decided to for a movement without clear mission and started arm struggle which caused thousands of lives hundreds of millions of dollars of property loss. In early 90's Somalis ousted the the military government and SNM occupied part of Somaliland and started to dialogue with the other tribes in the region. It was a good step but soon SNM developed the new mentality of believing that Somaliland belongs to them and they want to seek international community. And that was the cause of mistrust which will have gray impact to the Somaliland future. Even if international community attempt to seek referendum from the citizen of Somaliland the outcome is not going to be favorite one to SNM because Dhulbahante, Samaroon, Warsangeli and many different trabes whom are the citizens of Somaliland are not trusting SNM. The reason is SNM never intended to welcome the greater community of regions of Somaliland.SNM never earned their trust. __

  • Warya

    "It was a Joyful union" someone failed history class kkkk

    • Mohamed Mohamed

      July 1st, 1960 I was one of the thousands of Somali Landers celebrating in north somalia for unity of the two somalis and the formation of the Somali Republic. The world was different, people were different and Somalis were united their course. I couldn't understand what is cause of this extreme change.

      • warya

        "I couldn't understand what is cause of this extreme change." Greed, tribalism and the loss of emaan happened dear brother. Unity and nationalism is all fine and nice, but the reality is we have been disunited even during the old union days. The region and flag was 1, but at no point in time was our country on a sustainable path (coup, counter coup etc).

        Ask yourself, what does nationalism mean in a country that is fiercely tribal and opportunistic?

        In Egypt the entire country screams for a better day for their country. In Libya, it the exact same. No one dreams about subjugating another tribe/group and keeping the nation's riches in the hands of a few relatives. In Somalia this is unfortunately the case. Some tribes are more than willing to commit genocide and fight for another 200 years if it means their TRIBE will rule. This is harsh FACT that is supported by more than 20 years of chaos in the south.

        Finally, I would like you to answer the following – If the only 2 peaceful regions (SL, PL) can't agree on anything except for a temporary postponement of hostilities then what hope is there for Somalia as a whole?

        - Why have the Isaaq given up on Somalia?
        - Why are so many Dhulbhante taking their chances with Somaliland vs Mogadishu?
        - Why is Puntland so obsessed with causing a fitnah amongst the SSC citizens and taking power in Mogadishu?
        - Why can't the Hawiya unite AT LEAST as a tribe?

        Questions Questions Questions! We want unity, but we don't want to answer any of the hard questions!

  • Mohamed@sassomn.org

    You are right, all mankind have the same greedy habit but most of them had ethics and principals but we ".most of Somalis" have none. And we could not understand what we are destroying "the beautiful country and the abandoned resources in it". This is the inheritances of our children.

    • Somaliland Wadani

      Somalia its self destructing get out the way before they consume you.But Somaliland is on the right path Islamic one with justice rule and inshalah a bright future.

      • Mohamed@sassomn.org

        Allah command us to not lie, do injustices. He command us to tell the truth and only truth if we believe Him and the day of judgment . However; you know and I know that Somaliland is not on right path and Islamic one.

        • Somaliland wadani

          Somaliland is on the right path you just a devil in disguise shabaab

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